Hazard Ratio: Benjamin Ryan

Hazard Ratio: Benjamin Ryan

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No, the Data Hasn't Shown that 'Transgenderism Is Effectively Over,' as Matt Walsh Trumpeted

An academic just went mega-viral on X thanks to his false presumption that a recent rapid rise and fall in reported nonbinary identification demonstrated a comparable trend for trans identities.

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Benjamin Ryan
Oct 15, 2025
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Cross-posted by Hazard Ratio: Benjamin Ryan
"A Twitter thread has gone viral that purports to show that transgenderism is in rapid decline among the young. The conclusion is false; the data is being badly misinterpreted.This wasn't done in bad faith. The professor in question simply isn't online enough or familiar enough with transgender culture to have a clue. "Non-binary" sometimes has overlap with a transgender identification, but it is far from universal. This excellent post presents a solid and thorough explanation of the correct interpretation of the data, which is: WE DO NOT KNOW. "
- Holly MathNerd
Prof. Eric Kaufmann’s wildly viral post on X

“Trans identification is in free fall among the young.”

That’s what a wildly viral post on X by a British academic claimed today, inspiring much crowing from the soldiers in the culture war who are most committed to proving that the recent surge in trans identification among young people has been the product of social contagion. Conservative commentator Matt Walsh, who has devoted much of his career to destroying the transgender project, proclaimed on X: “Transgenderism is effectively over. We destroyed it. Clearest and most decisive cultural win that conservatives have ever achieved.” Elon Musk then replied to Walsh: “Your work here played a major role. Thank you.”


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